There are a number of symbolic circumstances and situations as well as political realities that are responsible for the emergence of the party as an increasingly vocal and credible alternative to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) as the voters’ choice in that geo-political zone. The APC has selected John Oyegun, a highly respected political elder with impeccable credentials, from the zone as its national chairman. In addition to this, it is going into the election as the incumbent ruling party in two states in the zone. In the case of Edo State, it wrested power from the PDP at elections after the performance of its popular Governor, former labour leader Adams Oshiomhole, during his first term, (when he gained power through a court ruling), convinced the electorate of his effectiveness. In the case of Rivers State, the ascendancy of the party arose as a result of fallout from internal divisions in the ruling PDP when Governor Rotimi Amaechi, also the beneficiary of a Supreme Court decision in his first term, quarrelled with members of his then party. These two situations have positioned the APC to provide a credible, if somewhat hostile, challenge to the overwhelming popularity that the PDP has enjoyed in the entire zone from the early days of the new order.
The major face-off between the parties in Bayelsa will be between the PDP’s Ben Murray-Bruce (left) and ex-Governor Timipre Sylva of the APC (right) for the Senatorial Seat of the President’s home District.
Now in the President’s home state of Bayelsa the APC is declaring itself ready to contest elective positions at levels at which no opposition party has achieved victory since the first election in 1999 when the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the then opposition party, gained a Senate seat. Since then, the PDP had gradually taken all the available elective positions in all the parliaments at both state and Federal level. However, recent events have indicated that opposition sentiments could attract resurgent support in some parts of the state through the influence of the former PDP Governor Timipre Sylva who joined the APC after losing the support of the ruling party’s leadership. This impression is reinforced by events that recently occurred in the primary elections for the selection of flag-bearers of the ruling party in the forthcoming elections. Sylva has announced that he will be standing for a Senatorial seat on the APC ticket in the Eastern Senatorial District of Bayelsa State, which is the home constituency of President Goodluck Jonathan. Knowledgeable observers have suggested that ex-Governor Sylva’s decision has been encouraged by the emergence of a candidate on the ticket of the PDP who he considers to be an unfamiliar and eminently challengeable outsider. This is the world famous impresario and former Director General of the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) Ben Murray-Bruce. In the run-up to the contest for the party ticket controversies arose as a result of the decision announced by some prominent party leaders in the Senatorial District to adhere to the convention of the rotational zoning of political offices, especially the Senatorial seat. As a consequence, the incumbent Senator from the territory Senator Ikisikpo was denied a second tenure at the primaries. Efforts to contest for the ticket by some other aspirants, especially the state’s first Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) George Ikoli, and Austin Dresmann, a well-known technocrat with strong community links, were eventually overwhelmed by the Murray-Bruce factor. Dresmann was actually persuaded to withdraw at the last minute while Ikoli was defeated in the eventual voting. Now it is being speculated by some observers that the fall-out from this will reverberate to the benefit of the ex-Governor Sylva’s campaign and improve his chances of election because of disenchantment over the method of choice that the PDP displayed in this particular race. However, some observers also speculate that the PDP machinery, which was responsible for installing Sylva as governor and also removing him from office, will be mobilised to halt his attempt to restore his relevance in the state. Many observers feel that this machinery has become even stronger as its main objective now is to strengthen the Presidential imperative that most Bayelsans believe in.
Rivers state politicians once regarded as stalwarts of the PDP are now APC aspirants. In the neighbouring Rivers State, the rise of the APC, apart from being enhanced by the abdication of a substantial proportion of PDP loyalists with the Governor, has been strengthened by the record of development especially in education and road infrastructures throughout the state that was recorded by the Amaechi administration. Even though the PDP has claimed that most of these achievements were implemented when Amaechi was a loyal member of the party and assisted by the very people who are now rebuilding the party structure that he undermined with his abdication, public sentiment favouring Amaechi’s side of the story is a growing phenomenon that the PDP must contend with and overcome in the general election. The reversal of the well-established rotational zoning principle of sharing the key political offices, especially that of Governor between the riverine and upland communities in the state that the emergence of Nyesom Wike as the PDP flag-bearer represents, has therefore become the major cause for disenchantment of a substantial number of riverine voters. As a consequence, for the first time since the transition from the Odili administration some key elders of the PDP have publicly suggested that members of the party should mount a protest vote in favour of the APC at the next elections.
The emergence of a riverine candidate as the ticket holder for the APC in Rivers State has given an additional boost to the fortunes of the party in the state even though Hon. Dakuku Peterside, the APC candidate, had once been regarded as a bright star in the PDP.
The PDP’s major setback in this wise stems from the fact that some of its most respected and highly qualified members have been rejected as aspirants as a consequence of the highly visible hijacking of the system by Nyesom Wike’s personal machinery. The issue at stake now is whether this advantage exercised so effectively in the primary stages can be manipulated to produce victory at the general elections. The suggestion openly bruited about by some party stalwarts that because the Federal Government cannot afford to lose the Rivers State it will use all its might to prevent this happening is an unfortunate factor arising from the circumstances that are in place in the state.
Some knowledgeable observers believe that the PDP’s best chance of restoring its ascendancy in the state would have been for it to field an especially attractive riverine candidate as its flag-bearer. On the other hand, Nyesom Wike’s supporters say they will overcome this deficiency by the sheer force of their campaign strategy and the restoration of loyalty to President Jonathan across the state that his emergence is supposed to represent.
Under the circumstances outlined in this analysis, it is imperative for the PDP to guard against complacency among its members and aspirants especially in some of the more volatile contests that it will face in the South-South geo-political zone this year. Failing that it risks suffering a plethora of humiliating upsets in some important sectors of the zone. It will be particularly humiliating if it loses its grip in Port Harcourt, which is the third most populous city in the nation after Lagos and Kano, both of which are already firmly controlled by APC-led governments. This prospect is the major danger confronting the PDP in the South-South as it approaches this year’s electoral contest and it is clear that the APC has targeted the zone as the most important and probably most vulnerable territory in which the game of modern Nigerian politics could be changed to an extent that has not occurred before.
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